devaluation in Venezuela is inevitable and imminent, experts say.
BY LATINVEX STAFF
A devaluation in Venezuela is
imminent, says Pedro A. Palma, director at Ecoanalítica
and founding partner at MetroEconomica. “Declining oil production combined with high demand for almost-free
gasoline and high export subsidies for politically allied countries have
limited the inflow of foreign exchange,” he told the Inter-American Dialogue’s
daily Latin America Advisor. “This scenario
combined with a high demand for dollars due to a significantly overvalued
official exchange rate and a black market rate tenfold higher makes devaluation
inevitable and imminent.”
IHS Global Insight, meanwhile, expects across-the-board devaluation within the next
Venezuela last devalued its currency, the Bolivar, in February last year by 32 percent.
INFLATION HITS 17-YEAR HIGH
A new devaluation will worsen inflation even further, warns IHS Global Insight analyst Carlos Cardenas. “A likely devaluation in
2014 will put greater pressure on prices,” he wrote in a commentary
Palma also sees
inflation rising above the 2013 level of 56.2 percent, which was the highest
rate in 17 years, according to a Latinvex analysis of data from the
International Monetary Fund. It also means that Venezuela had the world’s
highest rate, surpassing Iran, which had an estimated 42 percent inflation in
reinforcement of price controls will not abate inflation,” Palma warns. “After
a possible initial inflationary moderation, a rebound would follow. Unavoidable
adjustment will restrict production, limiting job opportunities and reducing
Venezuela has not tampered with official inflation rates so far. However, that
may change, Cardenas warns. “The
government will probably tamper with the Central Bank's methodology to measure
inflation (to show gradual improvements),” he says.
A very high public-sector deficit and massive deficit spending financed by the
central bank have caused the money supply to grow sharply, stimulating
consumption, Palma says. Meanwhile, production has been severely affected by a
highly overvalued currency, difficulty in accessing foreign exchange and a
hostile policy toward private enterprises.
“This has created shortages and scarcity and a growing dependency on imports,” he
says. “Despite the high international oil prices, the restrictions on the
foreign exchange market have made imports even more difficult.”
On Monday, President Nicolas Maduro
hiked the minimum wage in Venezuela by 10 percent to help offset the rising
“The increase is
... considered to be symbolic and unlikely to mitigate the country's high
costs of living,” Cardenas says.
The government’s continued struggles to resolve its inflationary problem will
increase the probability of it gradually losing popular support in 2014 and
seeing rising protests, he warns. “Increased public discontent will
probably translate into greater protests and industrial action risks in 2014,”
IHS expects pressure groups, such as unions working for the state conglomerate
Corporación Venezolana de Guayana (CVG), to step up demonstrations and strikes
to demand higher salaries, benefits, and the signature of a new collective
bargaining agreement. Unions at state-run oil firm Petroleum of Venezuela
(Petróleos de Venezuela, SA: PDVSA) demanded an 80 percent salary increase in
December 2013, which the company rejected.
“Public workers' protests are likely to increase along the risk of strikes in
the private sector,” Cardenas predicts.
Meanwhile, the multiple between the official and black
market rates of the dollar is at its widest, at double the margin of early 2013,
IHS Global Insight points out.
In November, the government created a new national center for foreign
trade (Centro Nacional de
Comercio Exterior ) that will allocate dollar quotas
to importers. “In addition, the [new
center] will add a new bureaucratic layer, making the foreign currency market
even more complicated for foreign investors in Venezuela,” Cardenas says.
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